Market Update | August 27, 2025

AFTER A BUMP IN JUNE, NEW HOME SALES CONTINUED TO SLIDE IN JULY

Now down for the second time in the last three months, July new home sales came in at a 652,000 unit rate, down 0.6% from June and down 8.2% from the 710,000 unit rate last July. New home sales have now declined, on a y/y basis, for seven consecutive months. The inventory of unsold new homes increased to 505,000 units, the highest month-end level since November 2007. The current inventory, when combined with July’s sales pace, equates to 9.0 months of supply. This is the highest level since December and above the five-year average of 7.3 months. The median sales price declined to $403,800, the lowest level since November.

 

PRICE

Larger spot deals at discount pricing helped to push the index lower this week. The larger move at the bottom is typical of a potential move higher from here.

  • Pricing has now been stuck in this tight range since Memorial Day, 13 weeks and counting ($47.90 – $50.90).
  • Anticipated inventory restocking, combined with the fall mill maintenance schedule (which has already helped to extend lead times), will provide some upward movement in the coming weeks.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing was up slightly this week but remained in a very tight range.

  • Pricing increased to $1.28/lb this week, and was above the thirty-day average of $1.24/lb.

 

Spot iron ore pricing increased slightly after a slight decline a week ago.

  • The current price increased to $112/mt, up from $110/mt last week.

 

Coking coal pricing increased this week, climbing to $191/mt.

  • This is up 4.5% from last week and up 10.6% from this time last month.

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production increased slightly last week after dropping last week.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.780 million tons at a 78.6% utilization rate.
  • Production is up 0.3% from last week but was down 0.1% from the same week last year.
  • YTD production is now up 1.3% from the same timeframe last year.

The U.S. Commerce Department announced the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty (CVD) margins in the trade case investigating corrosion-resistant steel imports.

  • The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) will now issue the final injury determination on October 9.
    • An affirmative decision will make the duties official, while a negative injury finding would end the case without any duties assigned.
  • As a reminder, all steel imports are already subject to 50% Section 232 tariffs, and these final AD/CV duties are additive.

 

Preliminary July carbon steel imports were up slightly from June but remained well below
year-ago levels.

  • July carbon steel imports totaled 1.698 million tons, up 1.5% from June but down 10.4% from 1.895 million tons last July.
  • Carbon flat rolled imports totaled 384,310 tons, up 23.0% from June but down over 35.0% from last July.
    • While all three flat rolled products increased from June, all three saw y/y declines of more than 30%.
  • Year-to-date carbon flat rolled imports are now down 32.8% compared to the same timeframe last year.

 

The Republican and Democratic leaders of the congressional steel caucus are pressing the Trump administration not to accept any arrangements with trading partners that would water down U.S. national security duties on steel.

 

DEMAND

After a bump in June, new home sales continued to slide in July, now down for the second time in the last three months.

  • July new home sales came in at a 652,000 unit rate, down 0.6% from June and down 8.2% from the 710,000 unit rate last July.
    • New home sales have now declined, on a y/y basis, for seven consecutive months.
  • The inventory of unsold new homes increased to 505,000 units, the highest month-end level since
    November 2007.

    • The current inventory, when combined with July’s sales pace, equates to 9.0 months of supply.
    • This is the highest level since December and above the five-year average of 7.3 months.
  • The median sales price declined to $403,800, the lowest level since November.

 

New orders for manufactured durable goods slipped again in July, now down for the third time in the last four months.

  • July new orders slipped 2.8% from June to a $302.8 billion rate.
    • Excluding transportation, new orders were up 1.1% in July after a slight 0.3% increase in June.
  • New orders for both primary metals and fabricated metal products increased as well, climbing 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively.
  • After a decline in June, new orders for non-defense capital goods (ex-aircraft) saw a 1.1% increase in June.
    • This is positive as it shows a clearer picture of increased business investment.

 

ECONOMIC

Consumers’ views of the economy declined slightly in August as increased anxiety over the softening job market negatively impacted the overall index.

  • The August Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 97.4, down 1.3 points from 98.7 in July.
    • Despite the decline in August, the index has remained in a tight range for the past three months.
  • The Present Situation Index slipped by 1.6 points to 131.2, while the Expectations Index declined by
    1.2 points to 74.8.

    • Expectations remained below the key threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.
  • Purchasing plans for cars increased in August, while purchasing plans for homes were virtually flat from July.
    • Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items were slightly down, but saw large variations from one item to another, as buying intentions for washers/dryers saw the largest increase.

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.