Market Update | June 25, 2025

U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE ASSEMBLIES INCREASED IN MAY

May light vehicle assemblies came in at a 10.92 million unit rate, up 7.5% from April. This marks the highest monthly rate since March 2024. The recent easing of auto tariffs between the U.S. and Canada, combined with the continued 25% tariff on other foreign auto imports, helped push domestic auto assemblies higher. Additionally, the recent drawdown in dealer inventories continues to help spur assemblies domestically.

 

PRICE

Domestic flat-rolled product pricing increased across the board this week as mill offers continued to become firmer after the recent doubling of Section 232 tariffs.

  • Over the past three years, flat rolled (sheet & slab) imports have averaged 11.5 million tons/year, if the increased tariffs eliminate just half of that tonnage, it would more than cover the new domestic capacity coming online.
  • The market will take time to fully realize that the domestic suppliers have no incentive to lower prices and the new pricing range will be elevated.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing was up this week but remained in a very tight range.

  • Pricing increased to $1.22/lb this week, slightly above the thirty-day average of $1.20/lb.

 

Spot iron ore pricing increased slightly this week but remains in the very tight range we have seen for the past two months.

  • The current price increased to $98/mt, up from $97/mt last week.

 

Continued weak demand across most regions, combined with ample supply helped to push coking coal pricing lower again.

  • Coking coal pricing was $174/mt this week, down 0.2% from last week.
  • Pricing was down from last month and last year as well, sliding 10.9% and 27.0%, respectively.

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production increased slightly last week after slipping slightly two weeks ago.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.787 million tons at a 79.6% utilization rate: up from 1.783 million tons previously.
  • Production is up 0.2% from last week and was up 4.9% from the same week last year.
  • Despite the recent increase, YTD production is still flat from the same timeframe last year.

 

Global steel production continued to slide in May, now down for the second consecutive month.

  • Global steel production came in at a 5.122 million ton/day rate in May, down 1.6% from April.
    • Production was down 3.8% from 5.323 million unit ton/day rate in May 2024, the first y/y decline since January.
  • Chinese production came in at a 2.792 million​ ton/day rate, down 2.6% from April and is the lowest daily rate since December.
    • ​Global production, excluding China, came in at a 2.330 million ton/day rate.
  • ​North American production came in at 305k tons/day rate, up 2.1% and the highest daily rate since June 2023.
    • The 3.2% boost in U.S. production pushed total NA production higher.

 

After dropping sharply in April, preliminary May carbon steel imports increased.

  • May carbon steel imports totaled 1.897 million tons, up 24.0% from April but were still nearly 14.0% below the 2.200 million ton total from last May.
  • Carbon flat rolled imports came in at 399,272 tons, up from April but down 41.9% from last May.
    • Total carbon flat rolled imports were below 400,000 tons for the second consecutive month.
  • Within flat rolled, a sharp jump in hot rolled imports helped to outweigh the continued drop in cold rolled imports.
    • Hot-dipped galvanized imports came in at a 2,813 ton/day rate in May, down from the 3,176 tons/day rate in April.
    • The current HDG daily import rate was the lowest since February 2011.
  • ​​Despite the increase in May, YTD carbon flat rolled imports are 29.8% below the total from the same timeframe last year.

 

DEMAND

After sliding in the previous two months, and in three of the past four months, sales of existing homes increased slightly in May.

  • May existing home sales came in at 4.030 million unit rate, up 0.8% from April but down 0.7% from the 4.060 million unit rate in May 2024.
    • Sales have now declined, on a year-over-year basis, for the fourth consecutive month.
  • ​The inventory of unsold existing homes ended May at 1.540 million units, up 6.2% from April and is now at its highest level since May 2020.
    • ​The current inventory, when using May’s sales rate, equates to 4.6 months of supply.
    • This is up from 4.4 months in April and remains well above the five year average of 3.1 months.
  • ​The median sales price increased to $422,800, the highest since last June.​​

 

After climbing the previous two months, new home sales dropped sharply in May.

  • May new home sales came in at a 623,000 unit rate, down 13.7% from April and down 6.3% from the 665,000 unit rate last May.
    • The current sales rate is at its lowest level since October.
  • The inventory of unsold new homes at the end of May totaled 502,000 units, up 1.6% from April and 7.7% from last May.
    • Inventory surpassed 500k units for the first time since November 2007.
  • Current inventory, when factoring in May’s sales rate, equates to 8.9 months of supply.
    • This is up from 7.4 months in April and above the five-year average of 7.3 months.​

 

After slowing in April, U.S. light vehicle assemblies increased in May.

  • May light vehicle assemblies came in at a 10.92 million unit rate, up 7.5% from April.
    • This was the highest monthly rate since March 2024.
  • ​​The recent ease in tariffs, on autos, between the U.S. and Canada, combined with the continued 25% on other foreign auto imports helped to push auto assemblies higher.
  • The recent easing of dealer inventories continue to help spur continued assemblies domestically.

 

ECONOMIC

​Confidence among U.S. consumers slipped again in June, easing after the strong gain in May.

  • The June Consumer Confidence Index came in at 93.0, down from 98.4 in May.
  • The Present Situation Index fell by over 6.0 points to 129.1.
  • The Expectations Index, based on a short-term outlook, fell over 4.5 points to 69.0.
    • The Expectations Index remains well below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.
  • ​​​According to the survey, respondents purchasing plans for cars were steady from May, remaining at the highest level since December.
    • Purchasing plans for homes declined however.​​​

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.