Market Update | May 28, 2025

CONFIDENCE OF U.S. CONSUMERS REBOUNDED IN MAY

After sliding for five consecutive months, the confidence of U.S. consumers rebounded in May. The May Consumer Confidence Index came in 98.0, up 12.3 points from April. The Present Situation Index increased nearly 5.0 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index, based on a short-term outlook, increased a sharp 17.4 points to 72.8. Despite the jump, the current level remains below the key threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead. The boost in May came as the framework for potential widespread trade deals became clearer.

 

PRICE

Domestic flat rolled pricing declined across the board this week as spot activity remains limited in a market where buyer hesitation continues.

  • The sharp (8% – 10%) over the last four weeks will be the sharpest decline of this cycle.
  • The current pricing indexes are closer to market and any further downward movement should be smaller week-to-week declines.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing was virtually flat this week as the global demand outlook improved slightly on thought of easing trade tensions.

  • Pricing held at $1.23/lb this week, slightly above the thirty-day average of $1.20/lb.

 

Spot iron ore pricing slipped slightly this week but remains in the very tight range we have seen for the past six weeks.

  • The current price eased to $100/mt, down from $102/mt the previous two weeks.

The U.S. import pig iron prices decreased last week on lower offer levels from Brazil.

  • Imported pig iron pricing decreased 5.3% w/w to $445/mt.
  • Current pricing is now down 5.3% m/m and down 7.3% from this time last year.

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production rebounded last week after sliding sharply two weeks ago and was at its highest weekly output since September.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.744 million tons at a 77.6% utilization rate: up from 1.720 million tons previously.
  • Production is up 1.4% from last week and was up 2.0% from the same week last year.
  • Despite the recent increase, YTD production is still down 0.6% from the same timeframe last year.

 

President Trump ok’s the “partnership” between U.S. Steel / Nippon Steel after nearly 17 months of back/forth negotiation.

  • As part of the partnership, the company would remain in the U.S., headquartered in Pittsburgh.
  • The bulk of the pledged $14 billion investment from Nippon would occur over the next 14 months.

 

DEMAND

New orders for durable goods dropped in April after seeing increases in the previous four months.

  • April new orders came in at a $296.3 billion rate, down 6.3% from March.
    • ​Excluding the volatile transportation sector, new orders saw a slight 0.2% increase from March.
  • ​After slipping in March, new orders for fabricated metal products increased, climbing 0.8% in April.
    • Primary metal product new orders slowed slightly however, slipped 0.1% after climbing the last few months.
  • ​New orders for nondefense capital​ goods (ex. aircraft) slipped slightly in April, sliding 1.3% from March.
    • ​This downward movement can be contributed to the uncertainty most companies have felt since the widespread tariff implementation.

 

ECONOMIC

After sliding for five consecutive months, the confidence of U.S. consumers rebounded in May.

  • The May Consumer Confidence Index came in 98.0, up 12.3 points from April.
  • The Present Situation Index increased nearly 5.0 points to 135.9.
  • The Expectations Index, based on a short-term outlook, increased a sharp 17.4 points to 72.8.
    • Despite the jump, the current level remains below the key threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.
  • ​The boost in May came as the framework for potential widespread trade deals became clearer.

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.