Market Update | October 23, 2024
U.S. LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION SLIPPED IN SEPTEMBER
U.S. light vehicle production slipped in September, now sliding for the third time in the last four months. U.S. light vehicle production totaled 894,643 units, down 7.2% from August, but was up 3.3% from 866,338 units in September 2023. This was the first year-over-year increase for light vehicle production since April. Year-over-year production for light trucks was up 6.6%, helping to overcome the 13.4% year-over-year decline in car production. Car production has now declined on a year-over-year basis for the seventh consecutive month. Year-to-date light vehicle production is now up 2.2% compared to the same timeframe last year.
PRICE
Domestic flat rolled pricing remained in a tight range this week as the recent supply outages have balanced out a weaker demand environment.
Input Costs
Zinc pricing rebounded this week, climbing after two consecutive declines.
- Zinc pricing slipped to $1.43 /lb this week, hitting its highest level since February 2023.
Spot iron ore pricing slipped slightly this week, sliding to $106/mt from $111/mt previously.
Coking coal pricing rebounded this week, climbing to $209/mt from $190/mt last week.
- Prices are up 3.0% from last week and are now up 15.5% from this time last month
SUPPLY
U.S. raw steel production increased slightly last week, now up for the second straight week.
- U.S. steelmakers produced 1.631 million tons at a 73.4% utilization rate, up slightly from last week.
- Despite the slight increase weekly output has dropped by 100k tons over the last month.
- Production was up 0.7% from the prior week and down 0.7% from the same week last year.
- YTD production is down 1.7% from the same timeframe last year.
October preliminary flat-rolled steel imports are trending higher, compared to September, through the first half of the month.
- Through the first 15 days of the month, current daily flat rolled imports are up 16.6% compared to the same timeframe in September.
- Hot-dipped galvanized imports are down, however, slipping 3.7% compared to the same timeframe in September.
DEMAND
U.S. light vehicle production slipped in September, now sliding for the third time in the last four months.
- U.S. light vehicle production totaled 894,643 units, down 7.2% from August but was up 3.3% from 866,338 units in September 2023.
- This was the first year-over-year increase for light vehicle production since April.
- Year-over-year production for light trucks was up 6.6%, helping to overcome the 13.4% year-over-year decline in car production.
- Car production has now declined on a year-over-year basis for the seventh consecutive month.
- Year-to-date light vehicle production is now up 2.2% compared to the same timeframe last year.
Sales of existing homes continued to slow in September, now down for the sixth time in the last seven months.
- Existing home sales came in at a 3.840 million unit rate in September, down 1.0% from August.
- Sales continued to slow on a year-over-year basis as well, sliding 3.5% from the 3.980 million unit rate in September 2023.
- Existing sales have now declined on a year-over-year basis for thirty-seven consecutive months.
- The inventory of unsold homes at the end of September increased again, climbing 1.5% to 1.390 million units.
- This is the highest month-end inventory level since October 2020.
- The month-end inventory, when combined with September’s sales pace, equates to 4.3 months of supply, the highest, non-peak pandemic, level since Q2 2019.
This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance. Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.