Market Update | October 8, 2025

A LEADING INDICATOR FOR NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION PUSHED HIGHER IN SEPTEMBER

The September Dodge Momentum Index came in at 304.6, up from a downwardly revised 294.7 in August. Compared to August, commercial planning grew by 4.7%, while institutional planning increased by 0.9%. On the commercial side, activity slowed for warehouses, offices, and hotels, while gaining momentum in data centers and retail. On the institutional side, education and recreational planning slowed while healthcare and public planning grew. ​Planning momentum remained steady and will correlate to stronger construction spending​ in the back half of 2026 and into 2027.

 

PRICE

Domestic sheet pricing is virtually flat this week, while HRC continues to push higher, both CRC & HDG held flat.

  • Mills continued to hold the line and will look to start the upward movement from here as lead-times start to move out.
  • The discounts for large tonnage buys, which we saw recently, are no longer available.

 

With import volumes shrinking drastically from 2024 levels, and steel buyers maintaining limited inventory on hand, the potential for a moderate buying surge over the next 4-6 weeks could help provide a boost to pricing.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing rebounded this week and remains at the high end of the recent range.

  • Pricing increased to $1.38/lb this week, and remains above the thirty-day average of $1.33/lb.
  • Tightening supply as inventory destocking continues, strong demand from China, and an expected weaker U.S. dollar from Fed rate cuts and the U.S. Government shutdown, all have played a role in the recent jump in zinc pricing.

 

Spot iron ore pricing slipped slightly after climbing slightly a week ago.

  • The current price declined to $110/mt, down from $113/mt last week.
  • Downstream demand rebounded significantly after the military parade, reinforcing the need for peak-season inventory restocking and supporting prices for the sector.

 

Global met coal prices remained largely stable over the past week, although market participants started to flag a slight pickup in buying interest from India

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production dropped last week, now down in three of the last four weeks.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.749 million tons at a 77.2% utilization rate.
  • Production is down 1.2% from last week but was up 8.9% from the same week last year.
  • YTD production is up 2.3% from the same timeframe last year.

 

DEMAND

A leading indicator for future nonresidential construction spending continued to push higher in September.

  • The September Dodge Momentum Index came in at 304.6, up from a downwardly revised 294.7 in August.
    • Compared to August, commercial planning grew by 4.7%, while institutional planning increased by 0.9%.
  • On the commercial side, activity slowed for warehouses, offices, and hotels, while gaining momentum in data centers and retail.
    • On the institutional side, education and recreational planning slowed while healthcare and public planning grew.
  • ​Planning momentum remained steady and will correlate to stronger construction spending​ in the back half of 2026 and into 2027.

 

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.