Domestic raw steel production rebounded sharply last week after the shortened Independence day holiday week. U.S. mills produced an estimated 1,735k tons at a 78.1% utilization rate; this is up from 1,695k tons and a 76.3% rate previously.
After sliding $40/gt in June, prime scrap surprisingly settled sideways for July, remaining at $380/gt. The flat reading suggests that the market may have finally bottomed out and found a floor.
Inventory, on dealers’ lots, at the end of June increased after seeing a slight decline in May. Light vehicle inventory ended June at 2.820 million units, up 3.4% from May and up a sharp 47.8% from the 1.908 million units at the end of June 2023. Inventories of both cars and light trucks increased from the previous month, climbing 0.5% and 4.0%, respectively. Current light truck inventory is at its highest level since March 2020.
Spot iron ore rebounded sharply ahead of the July 4th holiday after slipping four out of the previous five weeks. Spot iron ore pricing settled at $110.32/mt, up from $106.35/mt the week prior. This is the highest price for iron ore since late-May.
U.S. light vehicle sales totaled 1.322 million units, down 7.6% from May and down 3.4% from June 2023. The main reason for the drop in June sales was due to a wide cyberattack that impacted a third party, used by over 15,000 dealers, to process sales. It is being estimated that the cyber issues decreased sales in June by at least 50,000 units. As of this writing the issue appears to be resolved and sales are expected to be made up for in July. Despite the decline in June sales, the year-to-date total (7.824 million units) remains 2.3% above the total from the first half of 2023.
U.S. mills produced an estimated 1,710k tons at a 77.0% utilization rate; this is up from 1,704k tons and a 76.7% rate previously.
May retail sales totaled $703.1 billion, up 0.1% from April and up 2.3% from the $687.5 billion rate in May 2023.
TheConsumer Price Index was flat month-over-month as inflation slightly cooled for the second straight month. The May Consumer Price Index saw prices for all goods increase 3.3% compared to last year, still much higher than the Fed’s 2% target.
Steady domestic mills shipments combined with the continued surge in imports helped to overcome the increase in exports to push total carbon steel consumption higher in April. Total carbon steel consumption (steel shipments + imports - exports) came in at a per/day rate of 277.4k tons in April, up from 265.8k tons/ day in March.
Total carbon steel imports in April continued to push higher, now up for the second consecutive month. Preliminary April carbon steel imports totaled 2.055 million tons, up 4.1% from March and up 19.3% from 1.722 million tons in April 2023.
