After climbing the previous two months, sales of existing homes declined in March. March existing home sales came in at a 4.190 million unit rate, down 4.3% from February and down 3.7% compared to the 4.350 million unit rate in March 2023.
Shipments of heating and cooling equipment continued to rebound in February, now up for the third consecutive month. HVAC equipment shipments totaled 1.727 million units, up 2.9% from January and up 3.7% from 1.665 million units in February 2023.
After contracting for sixteen consecutive months, economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March. The March ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 50.3, up from 47.8 in February and up from 46.3 last March. This is the highest monthly reading since September 2022.
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased in February after sliding the previous two months. New orders increased to a $277.9 billion rate, up 1.4% from January and followed a 6.9% decline in January.
Light vehicle production continued to recover in the U.S. in February, now up in back-to-back months for the first time since last Feb/March.
Increased domestic mill shipments, combined with increased imports, helped to overcome higher exports to push total carbon steel consumption higher in January.
Shipments of HVAC equipment started off 2024 on a high note by seeing the first year-over-year increase since March 2022. Shipments totaled 1.678 million units, up 15.1% from December and up 2.7% from 1.634 million units in January 2023.
The second estimate for Q4 GDP showed annual growth of 3.2%, down slightly from the initial growth estimate of 3.3%. The second estimate reflects a downward revision to inventory investment. This downward revision was partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and consumer spending. The increase in GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, non-residential spending, federal government spending, and residential investment. These increases were partly offset by a decline in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction for GDP, increased.
After a soft ending to 2023, existing home sales started off 2024 on a stronger note. January existing home sales came in at a 4.00 million unit rate, up 3.1% from December but were still 1.7% below the 4.07million unit rate from January 2023. January marked the 29th consecutive month in which sales were down on a y/y basis. The amount of existing homes for sale at the end of the month totaled 1.01 million units, up 2.0% form December and up 3.1% from January 2023. The current inventory, when combined with January's sales pace, equates to 3.0 months of supply.This is down form 3.1 months in December and below the 2023 average of 3.2 months. The median sales price of $379,100 was 0.6% below December but up 5.1% from January 2023.
The Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator for construction spending, increased once again in January. The January Dodge Momentum Index came in at 184.1, up slightly from 183.9 in December. This is the highest DMI reading since July but is still below the 199.3 reading from last January. Compared to December, the improvement in institutional planning helped to overcome a slight decline in commercial planning. Slower growth in warehouse planning negatively impacted the commercial portion; while education and healthcare planning helped growth in the institutional side. With lending standards beginning to loosen and the Fed expected to begin cutting rates in the back half of the year, momentum should rebound for commercial activity.
