After sliding the previous three months, July light vehicle sales came in at a 16.87 million unit rate, up 7.6% from June and up 6.0% from the 15.83 million unit rate last July.
HVAC equipment shipments totaled 1.947 million units, up 3.6% from April but were down 0.9% from 1.965 million units in June 2024. This was the first year-over-year decline in shipments since February. Looking on a year-over-year basis, to help smooth seasonality, shipments of both water heaters and furnaces increased, climbing 2.0% and 5.6%, respectively. A/C & heat pump shipments slipped however, sliding 5.4% from last May. Year-to-date shipments are now up 0.9% compared to the first five months of last year.
The June Dodge Momentum Index came in at 225.1, up nearly 7% from May and up over 12% from last June. Within the overall index, both the commercial and institutional planning segments increased, climbing to 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively. Continued strength from planning for warehouse, recreational, and data center projects helped to push the index higher. Planning for other sectors like education, hotels, and retail stores continued to lag. Even if you exclude data center projects over the past two years, commercial planning would be up over 10% from year-ago levels. The DMI tends to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a year.
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June, albeit at its slowest rate since February. The June Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, up from 48.5 in both May and June of last year. Despite the improvement, the index has remained in contraction for four consecutive months. The decent (4.9) jump in the production index, which pushed it into expansion at 50.3, was not enough to overcome the slides seen in new orders (-1.2), employment (-1.8), and backlog of orders (-2.8). Inventories continued to contract in June but at a much slower rate and are now just a tab below neutral.
