Market Update | January 10, 2024

 

DOMESTIC COATED LEAD TIMES HAVE INCREASED IN BACK-TO-BACK WEEKS

After bottoming two weeks ago, domestic coated lead times have increased in back-to-back weeks. The current coated lead time of 8.6 weeks is up from 8.0 weeks last week and is at the highest level in a month. The four-week average continued to decline however, slipping to 8.14 weeks; the lowest level since the end of September.

 

 

Input Costs

As the recent up and down movement for zinc continues, pricing slipped this week.

  • Zinc pricing came in at $1.14/lb this week, down from $1.19/lb previously and remains tight at the 90-day average.

 

Spot iron ore pricing was virtually flat again this week, holding around $140/mt at $143/mt.

  • This is about 2% from the end of last week.

 

Pacific Basin met coal pricing regained some upward momentum this week, climbing to $336/mt.

  • Current pricing is up 3.9% from the end of last week and is up 0.3% from this time last month.

 

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production rebounded sharply during the first full week of the new year.

    • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.707 million tons at a 76.9% utilization rate.
      • This was the highest weekly utilization rate since mid-August.
    • While still early, the total output is up 1.6% compared to the same timeframe last year.

 

Preliminary January imports (7 days) declined compared to the daily pace in December, declining 2.4% and down 7.2% from the daily pace last January.

    • Preliminary January imports (7 days) declined compared to the daily pace in December, declining 2.4% and down 7.2% from the daily pace last January.

 

After bottoming two weeks ago, domestic coated lead times have increased in back-to-back weeks.

    • The current coated lead time of 8.6 weeks is up from 8.0 weeks last week and is at the highest level in a month.
      • The four-week average continued to decline however, slipping to 8.14 weeks; the lowest level since the end of September.

 
 

DEMAND

A decline in domestic mills shipments combined with a decline in imports and lower exports pushed total carbon steel consumption lower in November.

    • Total carbon steel consumption (steel shipments + imports – exports) came in at a per/day rate of 256.2 thousand tons in November, down from 262.0 thousand tons/day in October but up from 255.8 thousand tons/day in November 2022.
    • November carbon flat rolled consumption came in at a rate of 139.7 thousand tons/day, up from the 136.6 thousand tons/day rate in October and is up 7.2% from the 130.3 thousand tons/day rate from last November.
      • This was the eighth straight month with a year-over-year increase after nearly a year of declines.
    • Per/day coated flat rolled consumption rebounded in November on the back of increased imports.
      • Coated consumption increased 5.0% to a 52.2 thousand tons/day rate.
      • November coated consumption was up 3.5% from the 50.5 thousand tons/day rate in November 2022.

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes.  Content is provided AS-IS.