Market Update | July 16, 2025

SHIPMENTS OF HVAC EQUIPMENT INCREASED IN MAY

HVAC equipment shipments totaled 1.947 million units, up 3.6% from April but were down 0.9% from 1.965 million units in June 2024. This was​ the first year-over-year decline in shipments since February. Looking on a year-over-year basis, to help smooth seasonality, shipments of both water heaters and furnaces increased, climbing 2.0% and 5.6%, respectively. A/C & heat pump shipments slipped however, sliding 5.4% from last May. Year-to-date shipments are now up 0.9% compared to the first five months of last year.

 

PRICE

Domestic flat rolled pricing was mixed once again, this time with cold rolled and hot-dipped galvanized pricing climbing.

  • Hot-dipped galvanized pricing continues to bounce around the lower end of the new elevated pricing range.
  • Weaker spot purchases have helped keep lead times short which has kept pricing from moving higher.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing was down slightly this week but remained in a very tight range.

  • Pricing declined to $1.22/lb this week, but was still above the thirty-day average of $1.21/lb.

Spot iron ore pricing increased this week but remains in the very tight range we have seen for the past two months.

  • The current price increased to $108/mt, up from $104/mt last week.

Despite an uptick in demand from Indian buyers, met coal pricing was down slightly w/w.

  • Coking coal pricing was $173/mt this week, down 2.5% from last week.
    • Pricing was still down from last month and last year however, sliding 1.0% and 26.4%, respectively.

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production ticked higher last week, now up for the second consecutive week.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.783 million tons at a 78.7% utilization rate: but was still below the (three-year high) 1.787 million tons from three weeks ago.
  • Production is up 0.1% from last week and was up 2.8% from the same week last year.
  • YTD production is now up 0.7% from the same timeframe last year.

 

DEMAND

Shipments of HVAC equipment increased in May after a sharp decline in April.​

  • Shipments totaled 1.947 million units, up 3.6% from April but were down 0.9% from 1.965 million units in
    June 2024.

    • This was​ the first y/y decline in shipments since February.
  • ​Looking on a y/y basis, to help smooth seasonality, shipments of both water heaters and furnaces increased, climbing 2.0% and 5.6%, respectively.
    • A/C & heat pump shipments slipped however, sliding 5.4% from last May.
  • Year-to-date shipments are now up 0.9% compared to the first five months of last year.

 

Business activity in the manufacturing sector in the New York region increased in July after a sharp slowdown in June.

  • The July Empire Manufacturing Index came in at 5.5, up by over 21 points from the -16.0 reading in June.
    • The two-month average improved to -5.3 but was still below 0.0 for the seventh consecutive month.
    • Any reading below 0.0 shows contraction, while any reading above 0.0 indicates expansion.
  • Both new orders and shipments increased sharply in July while unfilled orders declined at a slightly slower rate.
  • ​The index for future general business conditions increased to 24.1, suggesting businesses​ expect activity to increase in the months ahead.

 

Industrial production was stronger than expected, rising by 0.3%. This was the best reading of the year so far and came in stronger despite a pretty weak showing from the automotive sector.

  • Output in the manufacturing sector increased 0.1% after a 0.3% increase in May.
    • For Q2, manufacturing output was up 2.1% at an annual rate.
    • In June, the output of durable goods was unchanged as the boost in primary metal and aerospace output overcame declines in appliance and motor vehicle output.
  • ​Overall capacity utilization increased to 77.6%, while manufacturing utilization increased to 76.9%.
    • Despite the increase in manufacturing utilization, the current rate remains 1.3% below the 50-year average.

 

ECONOMIC

Prices paid by consumers increased slightly in June, climbing 0.3% from May.

  • Over the last 12 months, prices for all items increased 2.67%, up from the 2.53% increase in May.
    • Despite the uptick, the increase remains below 3.0% for the fifth consecutive month.
  • ​Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.2% from May after a slower 0.1% increase previously.
    • Prices​, over the last 12 months, increased 2.90% compared to the 2.79% increase in May.
    • The shelter index increased 3.8% over the last year, with other increases coming from medical care (+2.8%), motor vehicle insurance (+6.1%), and household furnishings (+3.3%).
  • ​Prices for durable goods increased 0.51% from May after a 0.21% increase last month.

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.