Market Update | July 27, 2022

 

WARDSAUTO FORECASTS STRONGER SALES IN SECOND HALF OF YEAR

WardsAuto auto sales forecast for July came in at a 13.3 million unit rate. While this is still below normal levels, it’s an increase over the previous two months. For the full year, their forecast expects sales at a 14.3 million unit rate, this would point to a stronger sales environment in the second half of the year.

 

Input Costs

After rebounding last week, zinc pricing remained relatively flat this week.

• • Zinc pricing remained around $1.35/lb-$1.36/lb, its lowest level since last September.

 

Spot iron ore pricing saw a bump after sliding the previous three weeks.

• • After sliding below $100/mt late last week, pricing bounced back to $104/mt this week.

  • Spot iron ore pricing is up 3.1% from the end of last week but still down 13.1% on a m/m basis.

 

Pacific Basin met coal pricing continued its recent slide this week.

• • Current pricing is at $221/mt, down 3.9% from the end of last week.

  • While pricing is still down 30% compared to this time last month, pricing is up 5.0% from this time last year.

 

 

Supply

Domestic raw steel production increased last week after sliding the previous two weeks.

• • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.754 million tons at an 79.6% utilization rate.
  • YTD production is now down 2.6% from the same time last year.

 

Preliminary June total carbon steel imports totaled 2.200 million tons.

• • This is up 2.8% from May, but down 3.3% from 2.276 million tons in June 2021.
  • Carbon flat rolled imports were up slightly on a month-over-month basis as well, climbing 2.4% to 639,942 tons.
  • Flat rolled imports were down nearly​ 10% on a year-over-year basis however.
  • On a year-over-year basis, both hot rolled and cold rolled sheet imports saw a sharp decline, sliding 33.1% and 10.3%, respectively.
  • Coated flat rolled imports were up 25.9% compared to June 2021.
  • Year-to-date carbon flat rolled imports are still up 27.4% compared to the first six months of 2021. ​

 
 

DEMAND

After rebounding in May, sales of new homes regained its downwardmomentum in June.

• • June new home sales came in at a 590,000 unit rate, down 8.1% from May and down 17.4% from a 714,000 unit rate in June 2021.

  • This is the fifth month-over-month decline in sales in the first six months of the year.

  • Year-to-date actual sales are now down 13.7% compared to the first half of 2021.
  • Inventory of unsold new homes continued to grow in June, climbing to 463,000 units.
  • The current inventory, when combined with June’s sales pace, equates to 9.4 months of supply.
  • This is up from 7.5 months in May and is at its highest level since April 2009.

 

WardsAuto July auto sales forecast came in at a 13.3 million unit rate, while still below normal levels, it would be an increase over the previous two months.

• • For the full year, their forecast expects sales on a 14.3 million unit rate, this would point to a stronger sales environment in the second half of the year.

 

 

ECONOMIC

Confidence among U.S. consumers continued to wane in July after a sharp decline in June.

• • The Consumer Board’s Consumer Confidence Index Came in at 95.7, down 2.7 points from 98.4 in June.

  • The present situation component declined to 141.3, down from 147.2 last month.

  • The​ expectations component, a short-term outlook, declined slightly, slipping to 65.3 from 65.8 previously.
  • Overall consumer confidence has now slipped for three consecutive months and is at its lowest level since early 2021.​

 

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes.  Content is provided AS-IS.