Market Update | July 9, 2025

KEY NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INDICATOR UP SHARPLY IN JUNE

The June Dodge Momentum Index came in at 225.1, up nearly 7% from May and up over 12% from last June. Within the overall index, both the commercial and institutional planning segments increased, climbing to 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively. Continued strength from planning for warehouse, recreational, and data center projects helped to push the index higher. Planning for other sectors like education, hotels, and retail stores continued to lag. Even if you exclude data center projects over the past two years, commercial planning would be up over 10% from year-ago levels. The DMI tends to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a year.​

 

PRICE

Domestic flat rolled pricing was mixed once again, this time with cold rolled and hot-dipped galvanized pricing climbing.

  • Hot-dipped galvanized pricing continues to bounce around the lower end of the new elevated pricing range.
  • Weaker spot purchases have helped keep lead times short which has kept pricing from moving higher.

 

Input Costs

Zinc pricing was up this week but remained in a very tight range.

  • Pricing increased to $1.24/lb this week, above the thirty-day average of $1.21/lb.

Spot iron ore pricing increased slightly this week but remains in the very tight range we have seen for the past two months.

  • The current price increased to $102/mt, up from $100/mt last week.

Despite an uptick in demand from Indian buyers, met coal pricing was up slightly w/w.

  • Coking coal pricing was $180/mt this week, up 3.7% from last week.
    • Pricing was still down from last month and last year however, sliding 4.9% and 29.7%, respectively.

 

SUPPLY

U.S. raw steel production ticked higher last week after slipping two weeks ago.

  • U.S. steelmakers produced 1.781 million tons at a 78.6% utilization rate: but was still below the (three-year high) 1.787 million tons from three weeks ago.
  • Production is up 0.3% from last week and was up 5.1% from the same week last year.
  • YTD production is now up 0.5% from the same timeframe last year.

 

DEMAND

Weaker domestic shipments, combined with a slight pickup in export activity, helped to push total carbon flat rolled consumption lower in May.

  • May carbon flat rolled consumption came in at a 139.3k ton/day rate, down 4.1% from April and the lowest daily pace since November.
    • ​Daily consumption declined on a year-over-year basis as well, sliding 8.8% from the 152.7k ton/day rate in May 2024.
  • ​​Coated flat rolled consumption slipped as well in May but at a much slower rate than total flat rolled.
    • Coated flat rolled consumption came in at a 54.3k tons/day rate, down 0.8% from April.
    • The smaller decline in coated consumption was due to a stronger m/m shipment comparison.
  • ​Year-to-date coated flat rolled consumption is down 6.0% compared to the same timeframe last year.

 

A key leading indicator for the non-residential construction spending increased sharply in June.

  • The June Dodge Momentum Index came in at 225.1, up nearly 7% from May and up over 12% from last June.
  • Within the overall index, both the commercial and institutional planning segments increased, climbing to 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively.
    • Continued strength from planning for warehouse, recreational, and data center projects helped to push the index higher.
    • Planning for other sectors like education, hotels, and retail stores continued to lag.
  • Even if you exclude data center projects over the past two years, commercial planning would be up over 10% from year-ago levels.
  • The DMI tends to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a year.​

 

ECONOMIC

After a sizeable improvement in May, optimism from small business owners was virtually flat in June.

  • The June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 98.6, down slightly from 98.8 in May but still up from 91.5 in June last year.
  • ​​Despite the slight pullback in June, the index remains above the fifty-year average (98.0).
    • ​The index was negatively impacted by a strong increase in reports of excess inventories.
  • Sales were slightly mixed as the view of current sales declined at a slightly slower rate than in May, while sales expectations for six months from now grew at a slower rate.
  • According to respondents​, the most imports problems currently are taxes, quality of labor, and inflation.

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.