GLOBAL INPUT COSTS REACHING RECORD BREAKING HIGHS

Input costs are rising everywhere, especially in Europe, due to supply disruptions from Russia and Ukraine. Zinc pricing is quickly approaching $2.00/lb. as mills announce new coating extra increases. Spot iron ore is up 20% week-over-week. Pacific met coal pricing reaches a new record high. In the last week, U.S. imported pig iron pricing has increased 23%. As pig iron pricing rises it pushes scrap pricing higher as well. In addition to input costs rising, domestic mills have announced a second round of flat rolled pricing increases in the last two weeks.

 

INPUT COSTS

Zinc pricing continues to climb sharply as zinc pricing is quickly approaching the $2.00/lb level.

– We have seen multiple mills announce new coating extra increases and would not be shocked to see further increases in the near term.
– Zinc pricing last hit $2.00/lb. in late 2006.
– Sky rocketing energy pricing is affecting smelters around the globe, particularly in Europe, which has helped to push the price higher.

Spot iron ore pricing climbed this week, coming in above $160/mt.

– Spot iron ore pricing is up 20% w/w but still slightly below prior year levels.

Met coal pricing continues to see significant price increases as well, with Pacific basin met coal pricing climbing to a fresh all-time high.

– Met coal pricing is up 35% from just last week to $660/mt.

U.S. imported pig iron pricing has increased 23% from just last week and has climbed to $765/mt at the end of last week.

– Ongoing issues from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are affecting supply chains, as the U.S. imports an average of 60% of the annual total from the region.

While pig iron pricing is up sharply, as a key scrap substitute, it is helping to pull scrap pricing higher as well.

– The March scrap buy is poised for sharp increases, with settled pricing up $100-$150/gt.
– A move to the upwards end of that range would put prime scrap pricing back to its highest level since 2008.

 

SUPPLY

Domestic raw steel production rebounded slightly last week after sliding in five of the previous six weeks.

– U.S. steelmakers produced 1.762 million tons at an 80.0% utilization rate.
– Year-to-date production is 2.6% above the total from the same period last year.

Nucor Decatur is taking a 10-day maintenance outage at its steel mill in Trinity, Alabama, from March 7-16.

– The mill has crude steel capacity of 3 million tons/year, so the 10-day outage is the equivalent of 82,192 tons.

There are confirmed instances of EU countries inquiring with domestic sheet mills about export opportunities for both semi-finished and HRC products.

 

PRICE

According to Platts, HRC pricing around the globe continues to see an uptick after the recent disruption to supply from Russia and Ukraine.

– Spot HRC prices in Northern Europe have increased sharply on the back of lower Russian and Ukrainian supply and a sharp increase in raw material costs.
– Current HRC pricing for Northern Europe is $53.61/cwt.

U.S. HRC futures have increased significantly over the last two weeks.

– ​The current 3-month contract (June) is at $1,558 today; up from $965 three weeks ago.
– This is a 60%+ increase.

 

 

This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance.  Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes.  Content is provided AS-IS.