DODGE MOMENTUM INDEX INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN OCTOBER
Now up for the second consecutive month, the October DMI came in at 181.7, up from the revised 180.3 reading in September. Despite the recent recovery, the current DMI is still 8.0% below last October’s level. The DMI is a leading indicator for non-residential spending a year out.
After slipping last week, zinc pricing rebounded this week on the back of a slowing U.S. dollar (after the Fed hinted at an end to the rate increases).
- Zinc pricing increased to $1.16/lb this week and has remained in a relatively tight range for the past month.
- The average over the past 30 days is $1.11/lb.
Iron ore pricing rebounded this week on the anticipation of a new round of stimulus announcements from China.
- Spot iron ore pricing came in at $127/mt, closing in on its highest level since March.
Met coal pricing declined this week, sliding to $320/mt on softer buying interest from India coupled with increased Australian supply.
- This is down 8.5% from last week and is down 10.7% from this time last month.
U.S. raw steel production slipped last week; this is after climbing the previous two weeks.
- U.S. steelmakers produced 1.699 million tons at a 73.9% utilization rate.
- A 6k st production decline from the Great Lakes region led the declines, as both Northeast and Southern production slipped as well.
- The current YTD utilization rate is at 75.8%, down 0.9% compared to the same time last year.
After the sharp increase in September (due to HRC), preliminary October carbon flat rolled imports are down 22.9% compared to September.
- Preliminary carbon flat rolled imports are on track to have their lowest monthly total since April.
- Coated flat rolled imports are down as well, sliding 7.9% compared to the daily pace in September.
Despite a jump in imports and lower exports, weaker mill shipments helped to push total carbon steel consumption pushed lower in September.
- Per/day domestic carbon steel consumption declined to its lowest rate since March and was lower than year-ago levels for the sixteenth consecutive month.
- September carbon flat rolled consumption came in at a rate of 145.3 thousand tons/day, up from the 144.7 thousand tons/day rate in August and is up 8.8% from the 133.5 thousand tons/day rate from last September.
- This was the sixth straight month with a year-over-year increase after nearly a year of declines.
- Per/day coated flat rolled consumption slipped in September, sliding 5.3% to a 51.1 thousand tons/day rate. September coated consumption was down 3.8% from the 53.1 thousand tons/day rate in September 2022.
The Dodge Momentum Index increased slightly in October and is now up for the second consecutive month.
- The October DMI came in at 181.7, up from the revised 180.3 reading in September.
- Despite the recent recovery, the current DMI is still 8.0% below last October’s level.
- The DMI is a leading indicator for non-residential spending a year out.
- Within the overall index, a 2.0% increase in commercial building planning helped to overcome the 1.4% decline in institutional building planning.
- Heightened momentum in warehouse planning activity supported the commercial side of the Index this month, while muted education planning activity slowed the institutional portion.
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