HOME PRICE GAINS SHRINKING AT RECORD RATE
While still being higher than they were at this point last year, home prices, across the U.S., the gains are shrinking at the fastest rate on record. The Case-Schiller 20-City Price Index came in down for the second consecutive month but still up 13.0% from the reading a year ago. The increase in August was down from the annual gain seen in July. The difference in those comparisons is the largest in the history of the index (1987). The cities seeing the largest monthly declines were: San Francisco, Seattle, and San Diego.
The recent up and down movement for zinc continued this week, as pricing rebound slightly after dipping in the three previous weeks.
Spot iron ore pricing is currently trading close to its lowest point this year, sliding to $89.50/mt this week.
Pacific Basin met coal pricing rebounded again this week, climbing to $299.00/mt.
After inching higher two weeks ago, domestic raw steel production declined once again last week.
- U.S. steelmakers produced 1.669 million tons at an 74.8% utilization rate.
- This was the lowest weekly output since the first week of 2021.
- YTD production is now down 4.6% from the same time last year.
Global steel production continued to push higher in September and is now up for the second consecutive month.
- Global steel production came in at a 5.056 million mt/day rate in September, up 4.8% from August and up 3.7% from a 4.877 million mt/day rate in September 2021.
- The year-over-year increase in September snapped a string of thirteen consecutive year-over-year declines.
- The increase in September almost solely came from China, which saw production increase 7.1% from August to a 2.898 million mt/day rate in September.
- Production in Europe increased as well, climbing 16.2% to a 351,000 mt/day rate.
- North American production was down 0.8% from August and down 7.6% from September 2021.
- Production in the U.S. declined to a 220,500 mt/day rate, the lowest rate since December 2020.
- Year-to-date global production is down 4.3% compared to the same timeframe last year.
The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) narrowly voted to revoke antidumping and countervailing duties on Brazilian hot-rolled coil.
- The move comes after U.S. trade officials decided to let duties on Brazilian cold-rolled coil expire – a change that has raised the ire of some domestic mills.
- The revocation is notable because it could allow for Brazil to once again become an important supplier of hot-rolled coil to the U.S. market, especially since the country does not face a Section 232 tariff of 25%.
- That said, Brazil’s participation in the domestic market would be limited by its Section 232 quota.
- The Brazilian 232 quota equates to 70% of the 2015-2017 average. For HRC, that would translate into a quota of roughly 10k tons/month for HRC.
While still being higher than they were at this point last year, home prices, across the U.S., the gains are shrinking at the fastest rate on record.
The Case-Schiller 20-City Price Index came in at 303.8, down for the second consecutive month but still up 13.0% from the reading a year ago.
The 13.0% increase in August was down from the 15.6% annual gain seen in July; the 2.6% difference in those y/y comparisons is the largest in the history of the index (1987).
- The cities seeing the largest monthly declines were: San Francisco, Seattle, and San Diego.
- The acerating declines in home prices continues to point to a struggling residential market as buyers factor in higher interest rates.
After rebounding in August, new home sales regained its downward trend in September.
September new home sales came in at a 603,000-unit rate, down from August and down 17.6% from the 732,000 unit rate in September 2021.
This is the sixteenth consecutive month in which sales declined on a year-over-year basis.
- Year-to-date actual sales are now down 14.4% from the same timeframe last year.
- The inventory of unsold new homes increased again at the end of the month.
- The inventory of 468,000 units is the highest level since February 2008.
- The median sales price increased to $470,600, up sharply $435,800 in August.
After climbing the previous to month, the index gauging the consumer’s current confidence level decline in October.
This material, information and analyses (the “Content”) may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, historical data and anticipated performance. Content may reflect various assumptions by Majestic Steel USA, Inc. concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included for illustrative purposes. Content is provided AS-IS.