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Market Update | July 2, 2025

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June, albeit at its slowest rate since February. The June Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, up from 48.5 in both May and June of last year. Despite the improvement, the index has remained in contraction for four consecutive months. The decent (4.9) jump in the production index, which pushed it into expansion at 50.3, was not enough to overcome the slides seen in new orders (-1.2), employment (-1.8), and backlog of orders (-2.8). Inventories continued to contract in June but at a much slower rate and are now just a tab below neutral.

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Market Update

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Core Report | June 27, 2025

After sliding the previous two months and in three of the past four months, sales of existing homes increased slightly in May. May existing home sales came in at 4.030 million unit rate, up 0.8% from April but down 0.7% from the 4.060 million unit rate in May 2024.

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Core Report

Market Update | June 25, 2025

May light vehicle assemblies came in at a 10.92 million unit rate, up 7.5% from April. This marks the highest monthly rate since March 2024. The recent easing of auto tariffs between the U.S. and Canada, combined with the continued 25% tariff on other foreign auto imports, helped push domestic auto assemblies higher. Additionally, the recent drawdown in dealer inventories continues to help spur assemblies domestically.

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Market Update

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Core Report | June 20, 2025

Freight rates for the trucking transportation industry continued to climb in May, now up for the fourth straight month. The May inferred freight rates (a simple equation of cost of shipments divided by total shipments) increased to 3.143.

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Core Report

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Core Report | June 13, 2025

Domestic raw steel production increased sharply again last week, now up seven out of the last eight weeks. U.S. mills produced an estimated 1,785k tons at a 79.5% utilization rate; this is up from 1,757k tons and a 78.2% rate previously.

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Core Report

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Core Report | June 06, 2025

Domestic raw steel production increased sharply again last week, now up six out of the last seven weeks. U.S. mills produced an estimated 1,757k tons at a 78.2% utilization rate; this is up from 1,744k tons and a 77.6% rate previously.

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Core Report

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Core Report | May 30, 2025

After sliding for five consecutive months, confidence of U.S. consumers rebounded in May. The May Consumer Confidence Index came in 98.0, up 12.3 points from April.

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Core Report

Market Update | May 28, 2025

After sliding for five consecutive months, the confidence of U.S. consumers rebounded in May. The May Consumer Confidence Index came in 98.0, up 12.3 points from April. The Present Situation Index increased nearly 5.0 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index, based on a short-term outlook, increased a sharp 17.4 points to 72.8. Despite the jump, the current level remains below the key threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead. The boost in May came as the framework for potential widespread trade deals became clearer.

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Market Update

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Core Report | May 23, 2025

After sliding the first two months of the year, new home sales have now increased in back-to-back months. New home sales came in at a 743,000 unit rate in April, up 10.9% from March and up 3.3% from the 719,000 unit rate in April 2024.

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Core Report

Market Update | May 7, 2025

New home sales increased for the second consecutive month in March and was at its highest monthly rate since September. March new home sales came in at a 724,000 unit rate, up 7.4% from February and up 6.0% from the 683,000 unit rate in March 2024. Sales have now increased, on a year-over-year basis, in back-to-back months, and in four of the last five months. The inventory of unsold new homes held steady, ending the month flat from the end of February at 493,000 units. The month-end inventory, when combined with March's sales rate, equates to 7.1 months of supply.

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Market Update